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Updating from my previous posts. As some are aware I am developing a strategy guide on European roulette, well it's more of a system, and is developing some good results.
I work with a set of 'signature numbers' which are different for every number. Say it lands on 0. Then there's 14 numbers which I have accumulated via various methods which are the most 'probable' of hitting.
I found a Casino over the weekend - low and behold - allows my country to play and have live tables... result!
So I put my strategy to the test with expected results. And heres the Data for whoever is interested.
1st spin - 5ZAR per number (lowest chip value on table) 70Zar bet size - Number hit - 180ZAR
Round 1 Win
2nd Spin 5ZAR per chip - 14 down - 70ZAR bet down - number missed - 70ZAR down
- Doubled bet -
3rd Spin 140ZAR down - numbers came in 360ZAR Return
4th Spin 5zar chip value - 14 chips placed - numbers hit - 180ZAR Return
So far so good, Getting a decent return and account is in profit. Now my testing is to see how quickly this strategy fails so I'm being Bullish when it comes to my betting. I have three different ways to play with this strategy, all either reducing or adding risk. But the idea is: If the numbers on the bet do not come through after the 4th loss change numbers.
Minimum risk - never double always stick to just playing fresh number signatures after each loss
Medium risk - double each loss until the 4th progressive loss. Switch numbers and start again.
High risk - after 4th progressive loss change numbers, but then double the chip value from the previous loss.... I'll explain more with stats.
5th, 6th, 7th & 8th spins were losses so 70ZAR, 140ZAR, 280ZAR, 560ZAR were all the losses accrued from the loosing bets, so I change my numbers/
9th round was also a loss so that's added another 1120ZAR of chips given to the dealer but luck will run out and come to my favor.
10th round I double bet again so now 2280ZAR on table, number lands giving me a nice 5760ZAR return
-New Number change-
11th spin number lands and I get 180ZAR return from a 70ZAR bet
12th & 13th Spin's were both losses and doubles - So 70ZAR and 140ZAR loss to account.
14th was a double of 13 and numbers landed giving me a 720ZAR return and also the last spin of my session.
Now I had a table limit of 20.000ZAR but I only had a buy in value of 5,000 ZAR So I was pushing my limits but with the intention of wanting the system to fail. But after the first session I ended up with 7000ZAR in my account, giving me a 40% return of my initial investment and taking 2000ZAR in profit.
If I have change again today I shall try and play another session posting my results as I go along.
So, as I am aware 'There is NO winning Strategy' as I was informed my a member on here. But this one is doing exactly what it's intending and thats taking luck away from the house and turning it into our favor. And if anything will keep you at a table for hours on end. I've been there...
Happy Betting People
Ed, you wanna go through and explain why the system doesn't work? I'm not smart enough to break it down point by point.
This is an example of the gambler's fallacy right here. Previous numbers are irrelevant in a game of random chance because spins or events are statistically independent. Just think about it for a second: how could the result of one spin have any bearing on a subsequent spin? Neither the ball or the wheel has memory. It doesn't make sense.
So the reason this system will fail is the same as any roulette progression betting system based on bet sizes and/or historical results. If you are lucky you can go for long periods with positive or neutral results then whammo, you have a bad run and are wiped out. The house edge due to the zero on the table makes this inevitable.
14 spins is inadequate to prove anything.
Here's the thing: if you want to use your system to prolong your sessions or you enjoy it, go for it, that's great. But don't kid yourself that you have found a way to beat simple mathematics. There's a reason casinos have continued to offer roulette for a couple hundred years while people keep working on systems that will supposedly ruin the game.
There are guys that are way beyond where you're at that try to build devices that they hide in their shoe to help them measure the velocity of the ball in real time to predict which quadrant of the wheel the ball will land on. At least those guys are doing something based on physical reality that has some (probably tiny) chance of success. And if they did succeed it is likely that casinos would notice and change the rules to disallow bets being placed after the ball is dropped onto the wheel.
Wizard of Odds has a great page about why all systems fail here.
If you really reckon you've done the impossible, this guy is offering a $30,000 reward for a system that works. All you have to do is stake your own $3000 and take the challenge. He's been waiting 14 years and no-one has taken up the challenge.
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It's all very complicated, I'm more inclined to the fact that either you are lucky or not, all the slots are calculated so that the casino did not go into deficit, you must always understand it
I've been registered in several forums for years and read a lot about results and "strategies" and one thing is clear: the nice saying: in the end the casino always wins... is unfortunately 99% true. exceptions prove the rule. I am the best proof of that. I play less than I did 2-3 years ago and only slots. Overall it will probably be around 5-6 years and I'm still a few good lengths ahead.
Strategies in gambling are basically useless, but you can significantly improve your chances with a few things and minimize the risk of not losing your deposit directly and often end the session with a nice profit. I am only referring to playing slots here and I would like to emphasize that luck also plays a very important role.
Unfortunately, the conditions for German players have deteriorated noticeably here in Germany since gambling was regulated some time ago. Many casinos have turned their backs on the German market due to the regulation. In addition, there is a drastic reduction in the minimum payout quotas for casinos with MGA licenses. So it has become more difficult to find new casinos that are trustworthy and still have good and stable RTP%. (The "super seven casino" in the last month...see pic made a very positive impression on me)
why find new casinos ? that's a main part of my, let's call it "strategy". I play 99% with a bonus and since casinos usually only offer a 100% deposit bonus for the first deposit or better, it is important to always use the best possible deposit bonus and then move on. it should be noted that there are good and bad deposit bonuses that look the same at first glance but differ like day and night when you read the bonus terms and conditions. what counts?
- sticky or non sticky boni
- wagering requirements
- do wagering requirements only apply to the bonus amount or to the bonus + deposit amount !!
- which specific games or even providers are not playable with active bonus
play only non sticky boni.make sure that the wagering requirements only apply to the bonus amount and are as low as possible. look closely at the list of non-playable games with an active bonus (you can usually find them in the bonus terms and conditions)
the second important aspect of my "strategy" is of cause the RTP%. first the RTP% that the casino offers to their players. "book of dead" and a few netent games like "blood suckers" and "dead or alive" have proven to be good indicators of this. If the casino offers these games with the highest possible variable RTP% (for bod this is 96.21%, for blood suckers 98%) one can assume that most of the other games also have a reasonable RTP%. i personally check the usual suspects in every game.
so much for the casino side. then of course it's about which games I play at all. I always check new games or games I don't know before playing. yes that's a bit annoying but hey if you only play games with an RTP% of 94% it's almost impossible to win....
For me, a trusted source of RTP% and all other important numbers about the game..variance etc was and still is slotcatalog.com
I try to ban all games with an RTP% below 96% from my game. I only play games with high variance if I'm already well ahead in the respective session.
never play at a new casino without reading the general terms & conditions + bonus
terms and conditions
I'm pretty positive that on every spin, the odds of landing on any number are exactly the same. Every spin, the odds dont change, you could have 10 blacks in a row, it has to land on red at some point. But the 11th spin still has the same odds, nothing changes.
My strategy for roulette is putting my bet so it covers 4 numbers at the same time. I bet the minimum bet and put 4 or 5 chips up, each on a different spot. It's the most ridiculous strategy I've ever heard of, and I can win, lots, but just as Ed mentioned above, the luck will run out and it breaks my bank lol it seems like cheating when you cover about 50% of the numbers each spin haha
I have been working at live casinos for a long time and the only strategy that would work is to play the same way the dealer plays on Blackjack.
But you need to know that this strategy will work in a long run, perhaps like 8-12h of playing and you should be alone on the table so no other player mixed your strategy hits etc
When I started playing, I read the guide to the strategy and all the rules of betting. Now I try to follow this strategy and stay in the black.
Ever saw anyone that managed to follow it and end up in profit? I mean, being alone at table is something nobody can guarantee, it's unlikely to happen. Even if it does, casino can always send someone to play along with you in case they notice what you're doing 🙂
It was said in the other "psychology part of gambling" thread here but for blackjack just play what's called "basic strategy". You can just use a search engine to find it. (I guess you can find it in that "blackjack" link as well.)
The casino still has the edge - the games are designed for the casino to come out ahead - but it's only a small one so you have a decent chance of winning.
If you can't remember and want a simple strategy, just hit 12-16 when the dealer has a good card (7-A). Stand 12-16 when the dealer has a bust card (2-6).
That's not the same as the dealer strategy since the dealer would always hit 12-16 regardless. You can't play the same as the dealer because the dealer wins when you both bust.
No, havent seen anybody last over 12 hours following the dealer strategy - it was one time a dealer from another casino came to ours and tried to follow that strategy and he did for like 8-9 hours but after tha got drunk and all was trashed - about playing alone on the table - always can make the table privete with higher minimum bets
It's all down to the slot, the time you play, the spin you hit etc, its really hard to determine how to have a strategy on slot because of the RTP rates etc i think
Strategies are OK too use, but being stubborn even though you're winning and not changing the strategy often will eventually screw you up. All strategies work nicely if you stop on time. No strategy will always work.