usReckless Bets
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24 January 2021 - 5:38pm

Bovada progressive jackpot odds

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So the jackpot for 777 Deluxe over at the Bovada group of casinos has risen to over $900k, in part because of the infusion of jackpots from Flash games they removed at the new year. Obviously tons of people are chasing these jackpots now.

One thing I find interesting is that their support team has said numerous times now that the bet size doesn't affect jackpot odds. I just don't believe this whatsoever. For one, the team has started posting jackpot info on a weekly basis for the jackpots won on Bovada. Here is the latest one I could find. Notice a trend on the bet sizes that won the progressives?

There has been a few won on 20 cent bets but the vast majority are at higher bets (from $10 to $200 spins). If every bet truly did have an equal chance, you'd see way more progressive wins at smaller bets because that's the vast majority of bets people are playing on these games, just like at any casino. If what support says is true, that implies most people are playing these games at $20-$100 spins. 🤔

It would also seemingly skew the RTP for these games at a max for minimum bets.

Am I crazy for thinking the support team is continuously stating false information, here?

auCL-Ed
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24 January 2021 - 11:41pm
#1

Sorry I can't see those pages you've linked as they require a login and my old one won't work any more as they have locked it.

I can't tell if the thread where they are detailing wins is only for this 777 Deluxe game, or for all their games. It is quite possible that chances of winning a jackpot on some games are affected by bet size, while on others they aren't.

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25 January 2021 - 7:43pm
#2

So I went in and scraped all the jackpot wins that were won on Bovada from August until now and threw them in a spreadsheet (I have some free time these days 😀.

For example, here's 777 Deluxe (RIP the formatting):

Game Win Amount Bet Size Date
777 Deluxe $38,451.79 $0.20 10/8/2020
777 Deluxe $65,240.59 $0.20 11/10/2020
777 Deluxe $204,188.82 $0.20 8/31/2020
777 Deluxe $76,798.01 $0.50 11/11/2020
777 Deluxe $306,930.46 $1.00 12/16/2020
777 Deluxe $148,257.64 $2.00 10/12/2020
777 Deluxe $31,626.34 $2.00 9/1/2020
777 Deluxe $270,388.67 $2.00 1/10/2021
777 Deluxe $30,164.63 $4.00 10/18/2020
777 Deluxe $46,873.81 $4.00 10/23/2020
777 Deluxe $174,123.67 $4.00 12/23/2020
777 Deluxe $57,619.64 $4.00 12/24/2020
777 Deluxe $135,549.27 $5.00 8/16/2020
777 Deluxe $59,965.50 $5.00 10/15/2020
777 Deluxe $72,957.99 $5.00 10/24/2020
777 Deluxe $36,980.10 $5.00 10/25/2020
777 Deluxe $31,462.42 $5.00 11/26/2020
777 Deluxe $155,103.97 $5.00 12/1/2020
777 Deluxe $478,263.80 $10.00 8/24/2020
777 Deluxe $56,961.26 $10.00 9/17/2020
777 Deluxe $152,884.86 $10.00 9/27/2020
777 Deluxe $269,796.75 $10.00 10/2/2020
777 Deluxe $46,607.51 $20.00 8/27/2020
777 Deluxe $211,566.29 $20.00 9/24/2020
777 Deluxe $122,498.19 $20.00 10/19/2020
777 Deluxe $59,965.50 $20.00 10/23/2020
777 Deluxe $138,105.06 $20.00 11/3/2020
777 Deluxe $83,179.26 $20.00 11/12/2020
777 Deluxe $66,538.17 $20.00 1/6/2021
777 Deluxe $41,299.52 $50.00 8/26/2020
777 Deluxe $69,460.67 $50.00 10/26/2020
777 Deluxe $354,926.49 $50.00 11/18/2020
777 Deluxe $31,052.38 $50.00 12/16/2020
777 Deluxe $71,844.86 $50.00 12/17/2020
777 Deluxe $153,231.68 $50.00 12/20/2020
777 Deluxe $449,549.77 $50.00 12/30/2020
777 Deluxe $76,694.82 $50.00 1/17/2021
777 Deluxe $195,879.15 $100.00 9/9/2020
777 Deluxe $154,590.87 $100.00 10/4/2020
777 Deluxe $51,747.98 $100.00 10/5/2020
777 Deluxe $187,548.40 $100.00 10/18/2020
777 Deluxe $68,612.03 $100.00 11/7/2020
777 Deluxe $107,001.41 $100.00 12/5/2020
777 Deluxe $113,766.57 $100.00 12/6/2020
777 Deluxe $57,045.59 $100.00 12/7/2020
777 Deluxe $65,849.00 $100.00 1/1/2021
777 Deluxe $58,430.57 $100.00 12/31/2020
777 Deluxe $78,634.45 $100.00 12/31/2020
777 Deluxe $220,001.99 $100.00 1/5/2021

Out of those 49 jackpot wins, the average bet size was $37.43 and the most-frequent bet used to win the jackpot was $100.

To me, this pretty clearly implies that progressive win odds are proportional to bet size, as obviously the vast, vast majority of bets on these games are at smaller amounts (I'd guess between .20 and $2). And if every spin has the same chance to trigger the jackpot, you'd expect to see the majority of progressive wins at much smaller values to match what is played.

But support continually says that jackpot odds do not depend on bet size for 777 Deluxe, Cyberpunk City, and A Night with Cleo (their newer game Mystic Elements has a note in its rules that say progressive odds DO depend on bet size). Seems like a huge anomaly that most wins are at larger bets when that doesn't represent the spins on the game as a whole.

2 KKlub, Matthew

usgstboy
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25 January 2021 - 8:13pm
#3

Seems like these jackpots climb real quick. They must do a ton of volume. I saw some .20 - 2 dollar bets hitting. I guess there is a chance but the high dollar bets do make a difference. I asked about it in chat and the rep said the jackpot chance is proportionate to the bet amount. So probably a higher chance of hitting for those betting higher amounts.

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25 January 2021 - 8:19pm
#4

Yes I agree that the jackpot odds must be proportionate to bet size, but again, their community moderators say that's not the case despite the data (see screenshots below).

They claim unless the game rules state it, it's not the case. But Bovada's games are notoriously bad for their minimal documentation.

And, for the RTG games with random jackpots (where a RTG dev over on CasinoMeister confirmed the jackpot odds are based on bet size), those games never stated such things.

screenshot1.png
screenshot2.png
auCL-Ed
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26 January 2021 - 11:03pm
#5

Yeah RTG random jackpot winning chances are definitely proportional to bet size.

What you never know is whether they are linearly proportional or not. For example are you 100x more likely to win it with a bet of $100 vs $1, or is it more or less? No-one ever discloses this.

Based on those numbers I'd say that this is most likely a case of the forum mod being uninformed. It wouldn't be the first time.

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usKKlub
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22 July 2021 - 8:34am
#6

I'm kind of surprised they released this type of data, definitely good stuff to have on hand especially considering my love hate relationship for this slot.

From my limited experience I feel timing trumps bet size but bet size does very likely play a role to some extent. Considering that some of those slots get quite a bit of action I wouldn't doubt that there are instances where server requests come in at the same exact time and that higher bets likely get preferential treatment. If it's all completely RNG all the time than it's even more likely that a higher bet plays a role in the generation of this number. I feel it's a mix, there are certain thresholds that have to be met followed by a timing event. If the timing event is missed it cycles this process to an extent. My experience is limited and opinion speculative but I definitely think it's an interesting topic.

To be honest I'm surprised anyone has every hit the 777 jackpot with a bet under 5. Apparently the recent hit a couple days ago for 235 was a 5 dollar bet, posted on the ignition forum.

auMatthew
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23 July 2021 - 10:48am
#7

'A Night With Cleo' is an Ignition-brand progressive slot adjacent to '777 Deluxe'. That game has similarly vague definitions for what constitutes a random jackpot.

I received this email response from Ignition customer service back in 2019:

Quote:

As we utilize a Random Number Generator (RNG) every bet amount whether small or big will have the same odds of winning on the progressive.

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