usVart_Lives
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12 May 2020 - 10:00pm

Bovada Blackjack

7 replies • Last post

So far this month I have played 3,934 hands of Blackjack, Classic Blackjack, and Classic Single Deck Blackjack. The breakdown of my wins/losses/ties is listed below. Pretty interesting once you see the actual numbers…

Won - 1,088 (27.66%)
Lost - 2,614 (66.45%)
Tied - 232 (5.9%)

ussportsstar19931992
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13 May 2020 - 12:19am
#1

Bovada blackjack gets hot and cold quick I feel like. Very interesting the numbers are that tilted over a pretty dang large sample size. I don't believe a normal casino blackjack table could possibly be that bad over that many hands, I could be wrong though

Mistee234

auCL-Ed
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13 May 2020 - 7:12am
#2

That looks low. A normal win rate on Blackjack is a bit over 40% if you play basic strategy, variable of course with the house rules. Do you stick to basic strategy at all times?

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usVart_Lives
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13 May 2020 - 12:52pm
#3

Yes, this was all played using basic strategy. I hear a lot of people complaining about online blackjack so thought it would be interesting to see the actual numbers.

Mistee234

auCL-Ed
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15 May 2020 - 8:55am
#4

Ok well if you were playing basic strategy all the time without exception then those results look terrible.

Lets see if my rusty maths can get this right. I'll assume you're wagering $1 a hand, the house edge is 0.5%, and the standard deviation of a hand is 1.17. These last two would vary depending on the exact rules for each game.

Expected loss = 3934 hands * $1 * 0.005 = $19.67

Standard deviation = $1 * 1.17 * sqrt(3934) = $73.38

I don't know what you lost in dollars but if you divide your loss by ($73.38 multiplied by the amount you were wagering if it was not $1 a hand) you'll know how many standard deviations off the expected result you are.

I'm guessing that it is going to be a lot. If that number is more than 3.5 or 4 then you're either the unluckiest blackjack player in the history of the universe, your application of basic strategy is not as good as you think it is, or the game is not random.

2 barbadosslim93, Mistee234

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ussportsstar19931992
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15 May 2020 - 10:01am
#5

Very good breakdown Ed thanks

usbarbadosslim93
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15 May 2020 - 1:47pm
#6

How much were you betting per hand? Interested to see how the math shifts.

auMatthew
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15 May 2020 - 2:25pm
#7

That's a decent sample size. I have seen some seriously questionable results playing homebrand Bovada (Ignition) baccarat, but I can't bring myself to call it rigged.

You can always play the live dealer version for some added legitimacy.

Mistee234

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