Vart_Lives
Freeroller
Joined: 5 Dec 2019
Posts: 5
12 May 2020 - 10:00pm

7 replies • Last post

So far this month I have played 3,934 hands of Blackjack, Classic Blackjack, and Classic Single Deck Blackjack. The breakdown of my wins/losses/ties is listed below. Pretty interesting once you see the actual numbers…

Won - 1,088 (27.66%)
Lost - 2,614 (66.45%)
Tied - 232 (5.9%)

sportsstar19931992
Gambler
Joined: 4 May 2020
Posts: 50
13 May 2020 - 12:19am

Bovada blackjack gets hot and cold quick I feel like. Very interesting the numbers are that tilted over a pretty dang large sample size. I don't believe a normal casino blackjack table could possibly be that bad over that many hands, I could be wrong though

Mistee234

CL-Ed
Staff
Location: Sydney
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Posts: 10410
Thanks given: 6291
13 May 2020 - 7:12am

That looks low. A normal win rate on Blackjack is a bit over 40% if you play basic strategy, variable of course with the house rules. Do you stick to basic strategy at all times?

Always play it safe! Consult our list of rogue casinos and warnings before depositing at a new casino.
Post in our forums to earn CLchips which can be used to buy real prizes in our CLchips shop.

CL-Ed
Staff
Location: Sydney
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Posts: 10410
Thanks given: 6291
15 May 2020 - 8:55am

Ok well if you were playing basic strategy all the time without exception then those results look terrible.

Lets see if my rusty maths can get this right. I'll assume you're wagering \$1 a hand, the house edge is 0.5%, and the standard deviation of a hand is 1.17. These last two would vary depending on the exact rules for each game.

Expected loss = 3934 hands * \$1 * 0.005 = \$19.67

Standard deviation = \$1 * 1.17 * sqrt(3934) = \$73.38

I don't know what you lost in dollars but if you divide your loss by (\$73.38 multiplied by the amount you were wagering if it was not \$1 a hand) you'll know how many standard deviations off the expected result you are.

I'm guessing that it is going to be a lot. If that number is more than 3.5 or 4 then you're either the unluckiest blackjack player in the history of the universe, your application of basic strategy is not as good as you think it is, or the game is not random.

Always play it safe! Consult our list of rogue casinos and warnings before depositing at a new casino.
Post in our forums to earn CLchips which can be used to buy real prizes in our CLchips shop.

sportsstar19931992
Gambler
Joined: 4 May 2020
Posts: 50
15 May 2020 - 10:01am

Very good breakdown Ed thanks

Forum Angel
Location: Michigan
Joined: 28 Jan 2011
Posts: 15242
Thanks given: 852
15 May 2020 - 1:47pm

How much were you betting per hand? Interested to see how the math shifts.

Matthew
Bronze Player
Location: Australia
Joined: 20 Sep 2019
Posts: 269
Thanks given: 332