0
$ £
caEric Luo
GamblerGambler
Eric Luo's picture
Joined: 4 Nov 2015
Posts: 77
Thanks given: 7
Thanks received: 18
20 November 2015 - 11:56pm

What should I have done?

4 replies • Last post

Last time I posted about a very advantageous deal that I had and posted on Casinolistings. The poat was called "Help me calculate the EV of this deal" I got a lot of good reponses saying that it was a great deal and that it was too good to be true. The only biggest catch was that you'd have to break even after you completed the wagering requirement to withdraw and they forced you to take a free spins package along with it as well (50x wagering on free spin winnings). I screwed up due to me being generally inexperienced with this and so I hope to get you guys to tell me what to do in order to try and break even on this deal. Should I aim for the low variance slots and keep it as safe as poasible? or should I aim to win big then grind the wager out using low variance slots like Incan goddess? Give me your opinions. I do not want to screw up again.

auCL-Ed
StaffStaff
CL-Ed's picture
Location: Sydney
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Posts: 7207
Thanks given: 3364
Thanks received: 2730
25 November 2015 - 11:42pm
#1

My first inclination is to say to go for variance and bet big. Mathematically, you increase your long term EV by increasing variance when claiming a bonus. But of course you also increase your chance of busting in the short term.

Even with the free spins package I would expect the wagering to be quite low as it was only 1x(D+B) + 50x the winnings from the free spins which were probably only worth a few cents each.

I would play for a big win by betting the maximum allowed under the terms on a slot and hope for a decent sized win. Then reduce bet size if you hit it to ensure you complete the wagering requirements.

Now, all of this assumes that the casino is above board and will pay you. Judging by the one you said it was, I would not be so sure on that last point. Casinos don't like it when players play smart and only play the absolute minimum wagering required before withdrawing (especially when the WR are so low). But as a theoretical exercise, that is what I would do.

However I'm getting a second opinion on this one for you. Hang tight, and hopefully I'll have an answer from a mathematician soon.

Always play it safe! Consult our list of rogue casinos and warnings before depositing.
Every comment you make in our forum earns you CLchips which can be used to buy real prizes in our CLchips shop!

caEric Luo
GamblerGambler
Eric Luo's picture
Joined: 4 Nov 2015
Posts: 77
Thanks given: 7
Thanks received: 18
26 November 2015 - 12:14am
#2

Thank you CL-Ed but I do not think that casino is safe due to belonging to Rev Share which links to golden cherry casino.

auCL-Ed
StaffStaff
CL-Ed's picture
Location: Sydney
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Posts: 7207
Thanks given: 3364
Thanks received: 2730
26 November 2015 - 12:22am
#3

Actually I think they are associated with a place called Cherry Gold. Golden Cherry has been shut down after its owners were arrested. Confusing yes, but not the same! Smile

Always play it safe! Consult our list of rogue casinos and warnings before depositing.
Every comment you make in our forum earns you CLchips which can be used to buy real prizes in our CLchips shop!

auCL-Ed
StaffStaff
CL-Ed's picture
Location: Sydney
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Posts: 7207
Thanks given: 3364
Thanks received: 2730
2 December 2015 - 5:50am
#4

This is the answer I got from Michael Shackleford, a noted expert on the mathematics of gambling (a.k.a. "The Wizard of Odds"). I asked him for a second opinion and he largely agrees with what I said:

Quote:

My advice would be to shoot the moon or go bust trying. Specifically, mathematically speaking, I suggest putting all $300 on one number in roulette.

Of course, the casino will probably frown on that. Even if they don’t specifically disallow it, they might not pay under the general “bonus abuse” excuse. So, it becomes a question of a way to maintain value and still fly under the radar. What I might do is bet very aggressively in blackjack, like $50 a hand. Keep increasing the bet as you’re winning, keeping it to about 15% of bankroll or $50, whichever is more. Shoot for a high target. I’d suggest around $2,000 but a lot of people will chicken out with less than that.

If only slots were allowed I would just make max bets until you bust out or get to $1,000 or so. It would depend on the max bet of the slot machine. You don’t want them to grind you down.

Always play it safe! Consult our list of rogue casinos and warnings before depositing.
Every comment you make in our forum earns you CLchips which can be used to buy real prizes in our CLchips shop!

Share this