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auArismac
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13 November 2015 - 7:03am

Staking strategy simulator for BlackJack

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G'day all,

I am on the lookout for a BJ simulator that I can use to trial a staking strategy, that over the course of about 500 "practice betting" seems to be providing me with a small but constant edge. On the short run I have shown a 4.5% profit on turnover using Spanish BJ online.

500 is very small number however and I would like to be able to trial in simulation runs of many thousands.

Does such a simulator exist, please?

Cheers,
Mac

deritchy
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13 November 2015 - 8:16am
#1

Hi,

so I do not know if there is a software that can do that.
I once wrote such a program for roulette and implemented several betting systems like Oscars Grind, cancellation system, martingale etc., but all failed in the long run.

It can be mathematically proven and if you have a look at http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ you will come to the same conclusion, that there is no betting system that can overcome the house edge in the long run.

Sure there are systems that might work over 500 hands, but in the end, if you play a 500 hand session everyday its like playing one single infinite session. Sooner or later there will be outcomes that will fail your betting strategy.
When playing simple martingale (double after loose) it will occur sooner then later Smile.

1 member gave thanks for this useful post: Arismac

auArismac
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13 November 2015 - 8:36am
#2

G'day Ritchy,

I completely agree with your reply. I have been a semi-professional gambler for too many years to possibly argue. Blush

What I have done is introduce a strategy that has done me very well over many years of betting on race horses. It is fundamentally a stop/loss method of staking that reduces the loss risk and increases the win edge combined with a staking plan based on Fibonacci mathematics.

I have looked at BlackJack Simulator and Trainer (payware) and Casino Verite (trial) but neither of them have the setup variables that I need.

Cheers,
Mac

deritchy
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13 November 2015 - 8:52am
#3

Hi Arismic,

it seems as if you have your own very special strategy.
Sorry, but its unlikely that there is software that can simulate your own special strategy.

You would need to either program it yourself or find someone that programs it for you.

auCL-Ed
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15 November 2015 - 11:58pm
#4

That is some good advice Ritchy. No betting system purely based on stake size can or ever will overcome the house edge in the long run. Arismac, your time would be better spent learning to count cards if you want an edge in blackjack. Of course that is of little use online with most games reshuffling after every hand, unless you can find a live dealer game that allows a deep deck penetration before reshuffling.

It sounds like you have some quite specific rules in your system which probably need some custom coding.

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auArismac
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16 November 2015 - 12:18am
#5

I quite agree, Ed. The successful punter has an undefinable ability to know when to quit. Some people have got it many have not. My interest in mathematics is not to attempt to beat the house edge, which is not possible, but to keep it to an absolute minimum.

I am fortunate that I have no "need" to gamble and play BJ purely for the enjoyment. Nonetheless I am still fascinated by the hard fact that anything that is based on pure mathematics can be solved by mathematics.

Fibonacci has always fascinated me and applying his maths to BJ is producing some interesting results as it did during my years of betting on horses which of course is one heck of a lot more than just mathematics.

Cheers,
Mac

auCL-Ed
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16 November 2015 - 12:57am
#6

When you say anything based on pure mathematics can be solved by mathematics, I'm not sure what you really mean? The mathematical problem presented by a game of blackjack is which call to make in every possible situation. This is a problem that was solved long ago and we now have strategy tables that tell you the correct play at all times. If you're card counting, the strategy for borderline calls can change depending on the current count and this can give you an edge over the casino depending on the house rules. We can use mathematics to prove that a game of blackjack has a house edge. And we can show that a progression betting system cannot overcome that house edge. This is all known and I would say "solved".

Horse racing on the other hand has far greater uncertainty as you have plenty of non-mathematical variables to take into account. I'm no horse racing punter but I would assume things like the health of the horse and the jockey, condition of the track, quality of the other horses in the race, race distance, weather, recent form and loads of other things. And I'm guessing that your racing system was more than just picking a random horse or a specific price or odds and increasing your bets in a Fibonacci sequence until you won. As such I don't think that you can compare horse racing to blackjack and/or apply a system that works in racing to a game of blackjack.

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auArismac
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16 November 2015 - 1:28am
#7

Correct Ed. Last things first. It is possible to eliminate a great deal of the guessing from picking race horses if we have access to the last few moments of the money being wagered on various horses and using the trend as an indicator and then yes, staking/betting according to a mathematical sequence dependent on the odds of the selection and previous results. Off topic subject closed before I get into trouble. Smile

I suggest that there are variables in BJ which is indicated by the "Strategy Card" of which I already have a collection of several including from your own excellent web site. The very fact that I have collected several in a relatively short time may be interpreted as indicating that all the mathematics are not quite so cut and dried.

So my ambition is to run long period tests using a Fibonacci based progressive staking system and different Strategy Cards. Surely that qualifies as mathematical examination of BlackJack? But what's in a name? That is what I want to do and am prepared to publish the results here, if I am permitted.

PS: Yes I am aware, of course that different table settings require different Strategy Cards. It is the variation of various Strategy Cards for the same table settings that interests me.

usbarbadosslim93 Recently online: 12 min ago
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16 November 2015 - 6:58pm
#8

I think the Wizard of Odds would be a good resource in working all of that out. Have you considered reaching out to him Arismac?

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16 November 2015 - 11:48pm
#9
Arismac wrote:

PS: Yes I am aware, of course that different table settings require different Strategy Cards. It is the variation of various Strategy Cards for the same table settings that interests me.

If you're seeing that, I'd say that it is either the result of a mistake, rounding error, or deliberate misinformation. There is an expected value for each action you can perform in any situation in a game of blackjack - i.e. hit, stand, double, split, surrender etc. If you play perfect strategy, you pick the action that maximises your expected value (or minimises your expected loss).

This is a good page with the EV for each hand combination. You can use those EV values to construct a strategy table based on the highest EV for each play. It should match the strategy tables you are seeing. If not, they are wrong.
http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/

barbadosslim93 wrote:

I think the Wizard of Odds would be a good resource in working all of that out. Have you considered reaching out to him Arismac?

Nice idea, but he specifically refuses to answer any questions about betting systems as he considers them all worthless.

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auArismac
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17 November 2015 - 12:22am
#10

Many thanks folks. When I first showed interest in this project a friend pointed me toward this forum and I am very glad he did. Your are credit to gaming, Ed. I will certainly follow the link you supplied.

I have looked at the Wizard of Odds web site and gathered some material. But as Ed has said, he certainly does not encourage attempting to open up system or mathematical based discussions.

I find that a little strange as on-line casinos and certainly the study of "odds", do not have a human element until the punters start playing. As distinct from sports betting (race horses etc.) they are purely mathematically based. Perhaps he finds the maths daunting, I find them fascinating.

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