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usUsne
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22 February 2011 - 6:25pm

Gambler's Fallacy

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Hi CL Members,

What is a gambler's fallacy? It is the false belief in a system of winning. We all have them whether we want to believe it or not. I am certain when i change my coin value that i will change my luck. But in reality it's wishful thinking. I can look at a roulette board of last numbers called and tell me myself a certain number is due to pop. It is little systems we live by that we feel we are going to win.

It is tough for me not to believe in some type of system of luck. There are even so called "professional systems" of winning. I have never tried them and not so sure how effective they might be.

Do you have a sure fire system that works for you? Or do you feel its all a gamblers fallacy and it's all based on pure luck.

Usne

usbarbadosslim93
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22 February 2011 - 7:06pm
#1

For some time I have been a believer of time and patterns when it comes to wagering. For instance, if I am playing Keno at the bar and note that the number 6 has not hit for five draws I would be more likely to run to the machine to fill out a ticket with that 6 on it.

Of course this is a fallacy. There is no real pattern in games of pure chance. I think I want to believe there is a pattern and it makes me feel better about making that wager. Maybe I am insane or something because I am expecting that result even though I know there is no pattern. I have cost myself a lot of money like this over the years, which is why I prefer games that involve SOME level of skill.

That way I can blame myself instead of a tv when I lose!

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22 February 2011 - 7:23pm
#2

I am the exact type of player as you barb. As a gambler i am a believer in time and patterns. I tend to think that if i play long enough it is bound to hit something. In more cases then not end up losing. I am in essence a casino owner's dream player.

But i never stop believing. I guess that gives me hope and incentive. After all what is gambling or anything in life without a little hope......right?

Usne

usbarbadosslim93
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22 February 2011 - 8:21pm
#3

Exactly. Even when I am playing blackjack where I adhere to a strict strategy I sometimes go off the beaten path for a hand because I have a hunch with the pattern of cards (even though I am not talented enough to count cards). I think that hope keeps things interesting, and when it pays off I sure feel good!

ushighroller
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22 February 2011 - 10:28pm
#4

When I gamble no one is more superstitious...when I stop gambling, no one knows what a fool I've been more than me...its all BS...but it just feels so right

auCL-Ed
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23 February 2011 - 2:16am
#5

The famous gambler's fallacy - good topic!

Yes past results are no indication of future results. That is true unless there is some kind of error involved that interferes with the randomness of the results. It could be something like an unbalanced roulette wheel or a deck missing a few cards. There was a guy called Joseph Jagger who famously broke the bank (he won more chips than were on the table) at Monte Carlo Casino in 1875 when he discovered a biased roulette wheel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Jagger

All "betting systems" are equally worthless against the house edge. Don't confuse that with strategy - as there is a correct way to play blackjack or caribbean stud or video poker for example. My favourite way of looking at it is like this - if someone had discovered some surefire way of making unlimited profits by beating a casino game .. why on earth would they be peddling it for sale on the internet or somewhere else?

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25 February 2011 - 1:21pm
#6

I think the point is here Ed is as human spirits we tend to be hopeful and look for a bit of magic as we play. We know that in reality that it holds no water. But holding on to a dream here and there as we play is part of the fun.

usbarbadosslim93
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26 February 2011 - 12:17am
#7

How about any superstitions or rituals you perform to enhance these "systems"? I have a doozy that involves a chant and a horribly nasty troll lady at work. When my buddy and I double down at the casino and are waiting for the chips we start chanting "two piece, two piece, two piece, gimmie some, gimmie some, want some want some...." When the card hits and it produces a double down win we yell "WOOOOOO GROVER!"

I swear it hits 9 of 10 times. It all revolves around this nasty greasy lady who looks like the clown from the Spawn movie. Her last name is Grover and she is really rude to everyone. One day she told us a story about how she wore a two piece swimsuit to a hot tub *shudders*, and a gambling chant was born. This works in with our double down system and has gotten us some money.

Smile

auCL-Ed
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27 February 2011 - 12:28am
#8

Joking That is horrible but very funny slim lol

No doubt about the magic Usne.. I'm always saying 6 or 7 loudly when I have a 14 in blackjack and my card's about to be dealt. It makes the moment better when you hit one!

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28 February 2011 - 7:28pm
#9

One fallacy i don't quite understand is players who cover up a reel or reels up as they play. Part of the excitement is watching those near misses. Thats what gets the heart pumping.

Wonder if they do that when they play online too.

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