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usUsne
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4 July 2010 - 1:49pm

Risk it all on Double or Nothing?

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Hi CL Members,

I love the extra features and added bonuses when playing slots. But there is one feature i don't like. It is the Double or Nothing feature! I see them alot when i play video poker too.

Nine times out of ten i will not play this feature unless it is a very small win and i am not risking that much. I wonder how many players actually use the Double or Nothing feature with a big win.

Is it worth the risk? Sure if you double up a nice win its great. But if i lost it i would be sick. I think this feature is just another way for casinos to try to get back what they just gave you.

In reality if i won the Royal Flush on video poker for $4,000, what do you think the odds are for doubling that win up? I would say you might have a better chance of getting ice water in hell?

Usne

auCL-Ed
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6 July 2010 - 6:37am
#1

Ok it sounds like I might blow your mind with this then ... doubling up in video poker or slots, assuming it is a 50% chance of a win, is one of the very best bets you can make in the casino!

huh?

This is true because there is no house edge whatsoever - its a straight 50/50 bet. This is why most casinos have a clause buried in their bonus terms and conditions saying that double-ups on video poker and slots do not contribute to wagering requirements.

Doubling a royal is still a 50/50 shot so you should win just as many as you lose in the long run, but considering how rare it is to get a royal (around 1 in 40,000 hands on jacks or better) are you willing to take that risk? It could be a long time until the next one if you lose.

Doubling increases variance and decreases house edge slightly. So if you are risk-averse and want to play a nice long entertaining game then avoid doubling. If you want to aim for a win target at the risk of busting quickly then double as often as possible.

Also related to your question the other day about slots bonus rounds, most double-up games are predetermined. So sometimes you have 4 cards to pick from and a Queen to beat for example and you pick one and lose and then see that none of the four cards would have beat the queen. You didn't get cheated ... the machine already decided before you chose whether you would win or not - although I do concede that the programming is a little stupid, you would think that they would have given you the illusion that you had a chance of winning. But anyway, the same thing happens when you win. So don't sweat too much about whether to pick red or black.

Sorry if that spoils the magic for anyone! Silent

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usUsne
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Usne's picture
Joined: 19 Mar 2010
Posts: 725
Thanks given: 57
Thanks received: 82
6 July 2010 - 7:40pm
#2

Thanks ed as always your knowledge is astounding! But i would like to ask you cant the double feature be predetermined too? If the win is predetermined on say the royal flush isnt the outcome of the double up already set?

Usne

auCL-Ed
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7 July 2010 - 1:18am
#3

I suppose it could be set before you even decided to double. But for it to legitimately be a 50/50 bet then if it was set to lose for you, then it would be set to win by someone else.

What I think happens is that you hit the button to double up and the machine shows you the cards or whatever to pick from. At that point it has already randomly decided (using a 50/50 random pick) whether you have won or lost and it doesn't matter which card you pick.

This all reminds me of an old friend of mine who was convinced he could see "patterns" in the double up results on the poker machines in the pubs here. He swore the red/black sequences would repeat themselves and he just had to work out at which point in the sequence he was. But obviously it is very easy to fool yourself into seeing "patterns" in random red/black results over time. No amount of explaining how the machines worked to him would convince him otherwise (besides the fact that the machine manufacturers would be idiots if they actually designed a game to be beatable like that) - I even suggested he write the results down to prove it or not but he never did.

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