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usJonathan01
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21 September 2011 - 4:43am

Winning and getting paid?

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Hello, I have been playing with fun money at 3DICE casino for about two months now, and I think I can do very well playing with real money. I have been playing Blackjack, Three Card, Texas Holdem Bonus, Roulette European, Baccarat, and Casino War. I started with $100fun, and now I am at $80,000fun.

What I am planning on doing is making a $100 real deposit, and slowly building my bank with low bets, and once I have enough money raise my bets, and start winning more.

This is my plan once I have a big enough bankroll: Play 10 sessions of Casino War with $300 bets a day, and once I am ahead by 1 unit, which would be $300, stop and take a break than play another session and win 1 more unit, and do this 10 times a day. This would give me $3,000 a day if I bet $300 on the player each bet. This would be my plan for any of the games I play, play max bet, win 1 unit at a time, and 10 times a day.

At this rate of 10 winning sessions of 1 unit, $300, would be $3,000 a day, and say do that for 333 days a year, would give me a million dollars a year. I know a million dollars a year sounds impossible, but ten (10) 1 unit wins a day sounds very possible. What do you all think of this?

Also do you all think I would have any problem getting paid this amount of money from 3Dice, or any other casino that accepts U.S. Players? I am planning on taking my withdrawals by check weekly for 50% of my winnings for that week, until I have a big bankroll, than withdraw a bigger percent each week.

Thanks for any thoughts on this.

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auCL-Ed
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21 September 2011 - 5:35am
#1

First off, wow - building $100 into $80,000 is impressive. Did you do that using this approach that you are planning or did you have a couple of big wins along the way?

As for your plan, I have to be brutally honest and say that I highly doubt it will work as easily as you seem to think. You're planning for the absolute best case scenario where you always have a winning session, and to guarantee that you need to have a theoretically unlimited bankroll so you can keep betting when you suffer a losing streak. Obviously you don't (well I assume so otherwise you wouldn't need to bother with this plan!) and so it won't always happen.

I like the money management aspect of what you are proposing - i.e. always quit while you are ahead. This sort of thing takes discipline.

However you will have sessions where you either bust your bankroll or end up behind. It is inevitable because you will be playing a low variance game with a reasonably high house edge (around 3% for Casino War), so over time it is mathematically more likely that your bankroll will decrease. And you don't have unlimited funds to call upon.

If you really want to try it, you should pick a game with a much lower house edge like Baccarat or Blackjack. But the same applies, you are more likely to lose in the long run. That is the nature of games with a house edge. If it wasn't casinos would not exist! You have to beat the odds to come home a winner!

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usJonathan01
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21 September 2011 - 12:47pm
#2

Yes, this was basiclly my plan with the fun money, which I learned to walk away with a 1unit win.started with $1 bets on roulette and built up my bankroll some with that. Which I would bet on a two sets of 12 and if a loss, triple the bet. I found this was good it start my bankroll with, but because of table limits my starting bet could only go up to about $10.
I than moved to blackjack, baccrat, etc. I learned that a 1 unit win was good enough, because I would say 5 unit wins, and I would always get 4 units, but than losse a lot just because I wanted 1 more unit.

My plan for the losing streaks is once I am down 5 units, quit and go play different card games, and win the 5 units back. I picked casino war to play once I have a big bankroll, because of the higher table limit.

Let's says I walk away with only 5 units a day instead of 10. Do you think I would have any problems getting paid this amount.

Thank you

auCL-Ed
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21 September 2011 - 2:46pm
#3

Assuming you could manage to win $1500 a day then I don't think you will have trouble getting paid by 3Dice for the short term. Their payments are quick and efficient. However if you managed to do it every single day without fail then I think you would probably find that they would kindly ask you to find somewhere else to play at, just like every other casino would. ;)

While I am amazed at your turning $100 into $80,000 in play money, if you manage a profit doing this every day for a year you would have to be incredibly lucky - luckier than any gambler who ever lived. When you say stuff like "I would bet on a two sets of 12 and if a loss, triple the bet" then I know you're in for a hard lesson somewhere down the track. This is a Martingale system which people figured out doesn't work in the long run a long time ago. Its great in theory with an unlimited bankroll and no table limits but in reality while it can work in the short term, the longer you play the likelihood that you will run out of money and/or hit the table limit approaches 100%. There is no betting system that has ever been discovered that can beat the house edge on a casino game in the long run. Only luck can do that!

Here are some numbers for you to keep in mind, assuming European Roulette with only one 0:

  • If you bet on two sets of 12, your chances of winning are 24/37 (almost 65%).
  • If you lose, you triple your bet (I assume you mean placing 3 bets so the net result is +1 if you win) and your chances of winning are again 24/37.
  • Your chance of losing both spins is 13/37 * 13/37 = 12.3% or roughly 1/8, and then you are down 5 bets in only 2 spins, so your next spin requires 6 bets to allow you to get back one unit in front.
  • Chance of losing 3 in a row: 4.3% or 1/23 (-11 bets)
  • Chance of losing 4 in a row: 1.5% or 1/65 (-23 bets)
  • Chance of losing 5 in a row: 0.54% or 1/187 (-47 bets)

In other words, assuming you play 100 spins a day you would expect to run into a 5 spin, 47 bet loss more than once every 2nd day on average (once every 187 spins). And then you will have to achieve a +48 bet winning session to get back in front as per your system. Sure you can place a 48 unit bet on the table in one go if that is below the table limit, but you're still going to have that 65% chance of winning it and 35% of losing it. Lose it and you're down 95 bets. Remember just because you lost 5 in a row, it does not mean that you are more likely than normal to win the next bet. Past events do not affect future results in a random game! Sooner or later you will run out of money after a bad run and at some stage before that you may reach the table limit which makes it harder to recover your losses as you will need to win more than 1 spin to get back in front.

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usJonathan01
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21 September 2011 - 3:25pm
#4

Yes, I understand you point on the roulette, and the whay I have been doing it is I started out playing roulette to build my bankroll, but hardly play it anymore. With roulette I have a max of a $10 start bet, which 3dice has a $500 limit, and if I lose 3 or 4 times quit. I think that the key to winning is more discipline than luck when you are only looking for a 1unit gain a session. A few times when I let my discipline go because I was on a winning streak, it quickly turned to a bigger losing streak.

My plan is to only deposit a max of $100 a month, hopfully my first deposit of $100 will be all I need to deposit. So my thinking is $ 100 a month, what is there to lose.

doyellowboots
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22 September 2011 - 3:59pm
#5

Ed's words are very wise Jonathan, no way can I believe that a casino will ever just keep paying out to you every week without asking you to leave the online premises.
Your idea about playing across games however is a top shelf tactic in theory but I suppose regardless of what game you play on you are always battling (1) against some % of house edge which will kick in at some stage + (2) against rng computer programmes which are the most annoying things ever invented as I am sure numerous people here will confirm Smile Long term both of these will be impossible to get around consistently as share prices of both online casino groups and rng technology developers probably illustrate year in, year out or am I wrong Ed?.
If you do stick to your guns and go live with this though may the sun be always on your face and the wind at your back Smile

usJonathan01
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22 September 2011 - 4:41pm
#6

Last night I played on rushmore with fun money, and I started with $1,000 and got to about $5,000 after a few sessions, than I lost $900 on blackjack with bets of $250, than played different games, and ended the night with $10,000 with only about 20 minutes of play time over a few hours.

I figure put a max of $100 deposit a month and see what happens. It is nice to see a profit of $5,000 to $10,000 every day to two days with play money, but in real money if I only got a profit of $400 a day and played 300 days a year, that is $120,000 a year, and if I put 30% ($36,000) of that aside for whatever taxes, that puts me at $84,000 a year. $84,000 a year is real good for about a hour max a day if not only one to two hands. And if I could play at three different online casinos, that would put me at $84,000x3= $252,00 a year net profit. At $250,000 a year that is plenty enough money, now talking $400 a day, would I have any problem with being told to go somewhere else?

doyellowboots
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22 September 2011 - 6:11pm
#7

I think what you are looking for Jonathan is for people here to tell you to go do what you think you should do. No one knows when a casino may or may not tell you to go elsewhere but think about it - in the terms and conditions of any casino with a brain will be their right to limit or ban you at their discretion, and this discretion will include you winning too much from them. They are businesses and thus in it for the money after all, so eventually consistent profit makers/winners will get banned.
Also no one can ever promise you that you will consistently beat the house edge and rng software whatever proof you can provide of riches made playing on fun mode using your strategy. It is yours and good for you for coming up with it but I think you will not find an answer to the literally $64,000 answer you are looking for here or on any other site about online gambling, ie "will it work or not?". No one knows at the end of the day who will win and who will lose in the same way no one knows who will win the lottery next week.
The only way you will find your own answers therefore are by trying to do what you think you can do. The fact that you have not done so so far would make me suggest you need to think carefully if you will be able to pull this off as by their very nature your comments show a lack of gambling courage which you will find very quickly when playing with real $$$ is every bit as important as discipline etc, etc and a million times different than playing with fun cash - I mean where is the pressure in that?? Smile

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usJonathan01
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22 September 2011 - 6:33pm
#8

Ok, thanks everyone, I will give $100 a month a try, and let yall know what happens. My biggest concern is being told to leave the casino, and with $100 a month if I win or lose not a big deal.

Thanks

auCL-Ed
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23 September 2011 - 12:27am
#9

If your only concern ends up being getting banned for winning every day then you will be one of the most successful gamblers that ever lived. As yellowboots alluded to you will be faced with some much tougher decisions when you are playing with real money, especially after a bad run and knowing whether to quit.

The problem is going to be that playing so regularly over such a long period of time, it is inevitable that the wins and losses will tend to even out, but you will lose money due to the house edge. There will be days when you log in and lose your first 10 hands or spins in a row. Or days when you never go above your starting $100 and you end up busting if you keep playing. It can and will happen. I just don't want you to go in there believing you have a sure thing or a system that can guarantee that you beat the house. You don't because the maths is against you. You can minimise the expected losses by playing correct strategy in the card or table games, and manage your money by being disciplined and setting limits so you know when to stop or keep playing, but over time only luck will determine if you finish ahead.

So I wish you the best of luck!

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ushope777
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26 September 2011 - 11:41pm
#10
Jonathan01 wrote:

Ok, thanks everyone, I will give $100 a month a try, and let yall know what happens. My biggest concern is being told to leave the casino, and with $100 a month if I win or lose not a big deal.

Thanks

Well, DO remember to keep us posted, okay? You have me very curious now, to see if this will work, lol. May Lady Luck shine her smiling face upon you! Smile

Hope777

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